Edge v3 — BTCisGTO Resolution Lab

Public practice calculator. Open the authenticated Kalshi paper desk →

Edge v3

Interval forecasting, anchoring-safe by design. You lock a probability range before you ever see the market price — then the price either survives your range or it doesn't. Three gates. Quarter-Kelly. Every report logged, including PASS.

Working…

01Lock your forecastPrice inputs stay hidden until this is locked

Polymarket event or market URL / slug (optional — or fill in manually below)

Question — what exactly must happen for YES? Full resolution criteria — every word, exceptions included Resolution deadline

Reads your question and criteria only — never the market price. Fills the fields below, which you can edit before locking. This is the anchoring defense: your range gets set before the crowd's number can bias it.

Evidence and reasoning — sources, dates, reference class, what could make you wrong

Low · %

Estimate · %

High · %

I checked the resolution source, deadline, and exceptions — no rule ambiguity remains.

02Challenge it with the market

Price inputs appear once you lock the forecast above. This reduces anchoring within this tool — it can't erase a price you've already seen elsewhere.

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SidesCost vs. your locked interval

AI reconciliationOptional — narrative only, never changes your locked numbers

Whale flowLarge trades, last 100 fills