RESEARCH → REVIEW → EXECUTION
Edge / Kalshi
Lock your forecast. Check the price. Protect the bankroll.
Operator sign-in
This password protects the private desk. It is separate from your Kalshi credentials.
Account and controls
$2 maximum cost per position · one open position · $6 daily / $20 total realized-loss halt. Paper capital starts at $201; it is not your verified account balance.
Execution readiness
Check the actual BTC exchange balance, existing positions and orders, key permissions, and current event fees. This check does not transfer funds or submit orders.
Not checked.
1 / Choose a market and read the rules
Quotes stay hidden until you lock a forecast. These contracts settle using their specified reference index and averaging rules.
2 / Lock a probability range
Enter a researched forecast, not a model confidence score. The experimental BRTI baseline is available below. Its range is a sensitivity estimate, not a calibrated confidence interval.
3 / Evaluate and record
5pp minimum raw edge · 3pp minimum estimated net edge · quarter-Kelly, capped by risk and depth. No entries in the final two minutes.
No review proposal prepared.
No forecast evaluated.
Paper fills assume displayed depth is executable. Fees use a conservative cent-rounded quadratic estimate; event overrides and real fills still need verification. A paper result does not prove profitability.
Forecast validation
Only the first locked forecast per market and source is scored, to avoid counting repeated revisions as independent evidence. Refresh ledger checks official settled outcomes.
No validated edge yet.
Server ledger
Refresh checks settled outcomes. Positions are held to settlement; the halt does not liquidate existing positions.